Official Off Topic Discussion Thread #1

[krichardson]

Hello; I do get the sentiment behind those who support the gesture. The death and destruction is hard to watch and hear about. That being the case i do think the gesture will have little to no effect on Russia. China and perhaps some others will buy the oil we leave on the table while we pay more for oil we scramble to get from Venezuela.
There is an adherence to the "green energy" agenda being used in what likely is the "never let a crisis go to waste" theme we all know well. The USA has fossil fuel energy reserves enough to have kept us from begging to Venezuela. These reserves are being shut in or not used due to policy. It was made clear that policy yesterday that restrictive policy against expanding use of our own oil will continue.

There is more in play than just the invasion disaster for Ukraine. As is the usual schemes are going on.

Agreed.

 

[Ulu]

I understand we are bargaining Iranian nukes for oil.

I sure hope this is a lie.

 

[skjl47]

I understand we are bargaining Iranian nukes for oil.

I sure hope this is a lie.

Hello; I have been hearing the same but do not know for sure.

 

[J. H.]

Hello; I do get the sentiment behind those who support the gesture. The death and destruction is hard to watch and hear about. That being the case i do think the gesture will have little to no effect on Russia. China and perhaps some others will buy the oil we leave on the table while we pay more for oil we scramble to get from Venezuela.
There is an adherence to the "green energy" agenda being used in what likely is the "never let a crisis go to waste" theme we all know well. The USA has fossil fuel energy reserves enough to have kept us from begging to Venezuela. These reserves are being shut in or not used due to policy. It was made clear that policy yesterday that restrictive policy against expanding use of our own oil will continue.

There is more in play than just the invasion disaster for Ukraine. As is the usual schemes are going on.

I honestly believe that the technology has moved to the point that noone wants to invest the billions in oil infrastructure anymore. The Trump Administration and COVID have shown us that the current global oil production capacity probably already exceeds the demand, and natural gas, biofuels, bioplastics and others are getting closer and closer to being financially competitive every day, all while electrification and hydrogen keep getting better. I don't think the oil industry is about to die, but I don't think anyone wants to dump capital into expanding its infrastructure right now.

 

[skjl47]

I honestly believe that the technology has moved to the point that noone wants to invest the billions in oil infrastructure anymore. The Trump Administration and COVID have shown us that the current global oil production capacity probably already exceeds the demand, and natural gas, biofuels, bioplastics and others are getting closer and closer to being financially competitive every day, all while electrification and hydrogen keep getting better. I don't think the oil industry is about to die, but I don't think anyone wants to dump capital into expanding its infrastructure right now.

Hello; Two things, but there are more. One is the keystone pipeline was mostly built. Had that not been stopped the capacity there alone would make up for Russian oil.
In a community seven miles from me an oil well is currently being drilled.

If the price of a barrel of oil is high enough the companies will produce it. They may not spend the money to do so if they fear "policy" will be against them. The policy is against natural gas as well as coal
I know about biofuels and last I looked was a tiny portion of supply. I do not know of bioplastics as a fuel.

Bottom line is there are not enough EV's around and they are very expensive to buy. Even if the number of EV's could be magically in place tomorrow the grid is not up to it yet. We still have brown outs and not enough electric capacity some days. My electric company can turn off my water heater remotely during high demand. A premature policy move against fossil fuels and this war crisis is escalating things for the worse.

Here is a question. If as you contend the production capacity is greater than demand, then what is the reason for the high prices and the move to ask Venezuela for more oil.

Never mind- I just hear on the news the rationalization. The claim is oil producers are not using the leases they have. 9000 untapped leases. Never mind the regulatory environment, labor shortages and supply logistics. labor and supply line issues lingering from Covid policies. But in time the oil will be tapped if the policies allow.

 

[J. H.]

Hello; Two things, but there are more. One is the keystone pipeline was mostly built. Had that not been stopped the capacity there alone would make up for Russian oil.
In a community seven miles from me an oil well is currently being drilled.

If the price of a barrel of oil is high enough the companies will produce it. They may not spend the money to do so if they fear "policy" will be against them. The policy is against natural gas as well as coal
I know about biofuels and last I looked was a tiny portion of supply. I do not know of bioplastics as a fuel.

Bottom line is there are not enough EV's around and they are very expensive to buy. Even if the number of EV's could be magically in place tomorrow the grid is not up to it yet. We still have brown outs and not enough electric capacity some days. My electric company can turn off my water heater remotely during high demand. A premature policy move against fossil fuels and this war crisis is escalating things for the worse.

Here is a question. If as you contend the production capacity is greater than demand, then what is the reason for the high prices and the move to ask Venezuela for more oil.

Never mind- I just hear on the news the rationalization. The claim is oil producers are not using the leases they have. 9000 untapped leases. Never mind the regulatory environment, labor shortages and supply logistics. labor and supply line issues lingering from Covid policies. But in time the oil will be tapped if the policies allow.

You are definitely right about the politics preventing companies from drilling and such.
You are also right about biofuels not being important right now, but they get better every year, as does algae farming, and many other technologies, all of which could put a dent in oil sales.
I mentioned bioplastics because plastics is a big part of petroleum consumption that may also be hit.
The answer to your question is that right now, we are cut off from the world's number two oil producer and many countries are stockpiling for war. As soon as this conflict ends, Russian production and those stockpiles will be rereleased into the open market, likely crashing prices. The chance of enough growth happening between now and then to make new oil facilities designed to pick up the slack profitable is impossible.

 

[skjl47]

You are definitely right about the politics preventing companies from drilling and such.
You are also right about biofuels not being important right now, but they get better every year, as does algae farming, and many other technologies, all of which could put a dent in oil sales.
I mentioned bioplastics because plastics is a big part of petroleum consumption that may also be hit.
The answer to your question is that right now, we are cut off from the world's number two oil producer and many countries are stockpiling for war. As soon as this conflict ends, Russian production and those stockpiles will be rereleased into the open market, likely crashing prices. The chance of enough growth happening between now and then to make new oil facilities designed to pick up the slack profitable is impossible.

Hello; One bioplastic is made from the soy bean plant. Some car companies used it for insulation coating on wires. Turned out rodents like to chew on it. Lots of damaged vehicles.

 

[J. H.]

Hello; One bioplastic is made from the soy bean plant. Some car companies used it for insulation coating on wires. Turned out rodents like to chew on it. Lots of damaged vehicles.

This is very true. Ford started using bioplastics in the '40s, and the reason they seen wider use since has been because petroleum plastic has been better. However, bioplastics are improving rapidly. BMW is famous for using them in their interiors, where they are great when new, but fall apart after ten years. My point here is that we don't seem to be increasing our oil consumption as fast as we once did, and since the Russian oil will likely become available again soon, it will be hard to convince suppliers to ramp up production

 

[skjl47]

This is very true. Ford started using bioplastics in the '40s, and the reason they seen wider use since has been because petroleum plastic has been better. However, bioplastics are improving rapidly. BMW is famous for using them in their interiors, where they are great when new, but fall apart after ten years. My point here is that we don't seem to be increasing our oil consumption as fast as we once did, and since the Russian oil will likely become available again soon, it will be hard to convince suppliers to ramp up production

Hello; Afraid I do not follow the logic. Regardless of how the Russia/Ukraine war plays out it is clear the world runs on fossil fuel energy currently. The green energy revolution is in an infancy or perhaps at the toddler stage. It will take years to transition to a mainly electric based transportation system. That is one thing. The green energy revolution is not ready for prime time.
Baring the very expensive EV's, the range is not there yet. I also live in an area without chargers. I was in a discussion a few months ago about this and could only find chargers in Knoxville TN about 60 miles away. The less expensive EV's are still more costly than an equivalent ICE. I would have to charge on household electric current much of which is generated from coal. The irony is I have a small car which has been getting around 35 MPG for 20 years and may well run cleaner that the coal fire used to charge an EV.

That oil producers are unlikely to ramp up production because there is not enough demand does not fit the picture I have of the world situation. I forget the exact percentage number Russian oil was of USA imports. I think it is in single digits. I think the refusing to buy Russian oil in the USA is a gesture more based on current polls steeped in emotion. I guess some will feel better about it but unless China stops buying Russian oil, Russia has a market for all it can sell.
On top of that since we cut Russia out of the SWIFT financial network, China, Russia and another country or few are working on a oil payment plan that cuts out the USA dollar. If that works the dollar may no longer be the FIAT world currency. If such happens the massive debt we have will become a devastating condition.

I do not see a way politically for us to start buying Russian oil again as long as Putin is in power. Well at least not for a long time.

 

[skjl47]

Volvo says manufacturing an EV generates 70% more emissions than its ICE counterpart - AutoBuzz.my

Volvo_carbonfootprintreport.pdf (volvocars.com)

Hello; Here are two links I found of interest some weeks ago. The first link is an article. The second link is the Volvo study. It may be of interest to note that Volvo has divested it's ICE engine production to a separate company. Volvo itself will not be making ICE in the future. I add this to make the point Volvo is not a company actively fighting against EV's.